Michelle Egbert

Confirmation Bias and the Stories We Tell Ourselves

I have come to realize that one of the most subtle yet powerful influences on how we make decisions is not what we don't know, but what we already believe to be true. We like to think we approach situations objectively, weighing facts and evidence to arrive at the best possible conclusion. Yet more often than we realize, we are not actually evaluating information neutrally. We are interpreting it through the lens of beliefs we have already formed, and then calling that interpretation "evidence."

This is known as confirmation bias. It is the tendency for the mind to favor, notice, and remember information that supports what we already believe, while unconsciously minimizing or dismissing anything that challenges it. Unlike more obvious thinking errors, confirmation bias rarely feels like a bias at all. In fact, it often feels like clarity, logic, or simply being right.

What makes this pattern so powerful is that it operates quietly in the background of our thinking. It influences how we interpret feedback, how we assess opportunities, and even how we evaluate our own progress. Two people can experience the same situation and walk away with completely different conclusions, not because the facts are different, but because their existing beliefs shape what they are willing to see.

I often see this pattern show up in the experiences of women entrepreneurs and business owners. A woman may feel as though she has tried everything to grow her business, only to conclude that something external is not working for her-whether that is marketing, sales, or her industry itself. Yet when we look more closely, what often becomes clear is that she has not necessarily explored all strategies equally. Instead, she may have gravitated toward actions that align with her existing beliefs, while avoiding or undercommitting to approaches that feel uncomfortable or uncertain.

When those limited efforts do not produce the desired results, it confirms the original belief: "This doesn't work for me." But the conclusion is not always rooted in reality. It is often rooted in selective attention-seeing what aligns with the belief while overlooking what does not.

Confirmation bias can be difficult to recognize because it does not feel like resistance or avoidance. It feels like being careful. It feels like being strategic. It feels like making decisions based on experience. And yet, underneath that sense of certainty, it can quietly reinforce the very patterns that keep someone stuck.

In Business

In business, this can become especially limiting. If someone believes they are not good at sales, they may avoid sales conversations or approach them with hesitation, which naturally affects their outcomes. If someone believes their audience will not invest at a higher price point, they may underprice their offer or hesitate to communicate its value clearly. If someone believes something "doesn't work for people like them," they may abandon an approach before it has had a real chance to take shape. Over time, these patterns create a cycle in which beliefs are continuously reinforced by incomplete experiences.

What makes this even more complex is that the mind is constantly searching for validation, not contradiction. It naturally gravitates toward information that feels familiar or safe and resists information that challenges identity or existing assumptions. This means that even when evidence of progress is present, it can be minimized or dismissed if it does not fit the internal narrative someone is already holding about themselves or their situation.

This is not a sign of failure or lack of intelligence. It is a deeply human pattern. Our brains are wired to reduce uncertainty, not increase it. Certainty feels safe, even when it limits growth. And so, rather than fully questioning a belief, the mind often seeks ways to preserve it.

In My Own Experience

I recognize this pattern not only through my work with others, but also in my own experience. There have been times when I have interpreted results through a very narrow lens, focusing more on what was not working than on what was beginning to shift. I have dismissed progress because it did not match my expectations or attributed outcomes to external factors rather than fully examining the assumptions I was operating from. It is only in hindsight that I can see how often my thinking was not just evaluating reality, but filtering it.

What began to shift for me was learning to pause long enough to question the certainty of my conclusions. Instead of immediately accepting a belief as fact, I started asking whether I was interpreting the situation through evidence or expectation. That distinction changed how I approached decisions, challenges, and even setbacks. It created space between what was happening and the story I was telling myself about what it meant.

Understanding confirmation bias does not mean abandoning beliefs or constantly doubting oneself. It means becoming aware of how easily beliefs can shape perception without conscious awareness. When we recognize that the mind naturally seeks confirmation, we can begin to slow down our conclusions and examine whether we are seeing the full picture or only the parts that reinforce what we already think is true.

For many women, this awareness can be transformative. So much of the pressure they feel is not only about external expectations, but also about internal narratives that have gone unchallenged for too long-narratives about capability, worthiness, timing, or what is possible for them. When those narratives go unquestioned, they quietly shape decisions, confidence, and direction.

But when they are brought into awareness, something shifts. Decisions become more intentional. Feedback becomes more usable. Progress becomes more visible. And instead of operating from a place of unconscious reinforcement, women begin to operate from a place of clarity and choice.

Confirmation bias does not disappear, but it becomes something you can see. Once you can see it, you are no longer fully operating within it. You begin to step outside of it, even briefly, and that is where change starts to become possible.

The most powerful shift is not always learning something new. Sometimes, it is finally seeing what has been in front of you all along-without the filter.

I have discovered that one of the most interesting things about the human mind is how naturally it holds onto the negative. A woman can receive encouragement, praise, and evidence of progress throughout her day, yet still spend hours replaying one difficult comment, one mistake, or one moment of self-doubt. Many women assume this means they lack confidence, but often it is something much deeper. What they are experiencing is negativity bias—our brain’s tendency to focus more heavily on potential problems, criticism, fear, and risk than on positive experiences and progress.

Negativity bias originally served a purpose. Human survival depended on recognizing danger quickly and remembering painful experiences so they could be avoided in the future. The problem is that while the world has changed, the brain’s protective patterns have not. Today, most women in leadership and business are not running from physical danger, yet many still operate in a constant state of mental self-protection. This can quietly shape how they make decisions, how they view success, and how they see themselves.

I want you to know that if you are experiencing this, you are not alone. There is absolutely nothing wrong with you. Our brains are naturally programmed to focus more on the negative than on the positive. I see this often in women entrepreneurs and professionals. Many are highly capable, deeply committed, and incredibly resilient, yet they still feel as though they are falling behind. They minimize their accomplishments while magnifying their shortcomings. They focus more on what is unfinished than on how far they have come. Even successful women can struggle to fully trust themselves because negativity bias trains the mind to scan for what could go wrong rather than recognize what is already working.

This becomes even more challenging in today’s culture of constant visibility and comparison. Social media has created environments where women are continually exposed to curated success stories, polished brands, and messages about doing more, growing faster, and achieving at a higher level. The brain naturally compares, evaluates, and searches for gaps. Negativity bias intensifies this process by pulling attention toward perceived inadequacy, mistakes, or fear of judgment. Over time, women can begin to believe they are not doing enough, even when they are carrying extraordinary responsibilities and making meaningful progress.

What makes negativity bias difficult to recognize is that it often disguises itself as responsibility or perfectionism. Many women believe they are simply being prepared, productive, or self-aware when, in reality, they are living in a near-constant cycle of self-correction. They overthink decisions, delay visibility, second-guess opportunities, or push themselves toward burnout because they feel they must continually prove their worth. The pressure to avoid failure becomes stronger than their ability to acknowledge growth.

I understand this pattern personally because I have lived it myself. There were seasons when I focused so heavily on what still needed improvement that I struggled to recognize how much growth was already happening. I replayed mistakes longer than I celebrated wins, questioned myself even when I was capable, and pushed harder because I believed success required constant pressure.

What began to shift things for me was learning to slow down long enough to recognize the difference between healthy reflection and constant self-criticism. I became more intentional about noticing progress, reconnecting with my purpose, and paying attention to the thoughts driving my decisions. Instead of operating from fear, comparison, or pressure, I started making choices from greater clarity and alignment. That shift changed not only how I worked, but also how I experienced success personally and professionally.

Understanding negativity bias does not mean ignoring challenges or pretending everything is positive. It means becoming aware of the mental patterns shaping perception. When women recognize that the brain is naturally drawn toward criticism, fear, and uncertainty, they can begin separating truth from automatic thinking. They can learn to evaluate themselves more accurately instead of through the distorted lens of constant self-judgment.

I believe many women are harder on themselves than they realize. They are building businesses, leading teams, supporting families, navigating transitions, and carrying emotional responsibilities that are often unseen. Yet negativity bias has a way of making progress feel invisible because the mind is always searching for the next problem to solve. This can leave women feeling emotionally exhausted, disconnected from their purpose, and unable to fully recognize the impact they are already making.

The conversation around women’s success often focuses on ambition, strategy, or productivity, but I believe we also need to talk about the internal mental patterns influencing how women experience success. Many women do not need more pressure to achieve. They need healthier ways of interpreting their growth. They need permission to recognize progress without immediately dismissing it. They need to understand that constantly feeling “not enough” is not always reality; sometimes it is the brain operating from survival patterns that no longer serve them.

When women become aware of negativity bias, they begin to lead differently. They make decisions from clarity instead of fear. They trust themselves more fully. They stop defining success only by what is missing and begin recognizing the strength, wisdom, and resilience they already possess. That shift does not just change businesses or careers. It changes how women experience their lives.